XRP, Ripple Labs’ native cryptocurrency, has seen a significant price surge, fueled by the reelection of Donald Trump and his commitment to fire Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler. This development has ignited enthusiasm within the crypto community, as a potential change in SEC leadership could lead to a more crypto-friendly regulatory landscape. With XRP already showing a 35% increase, analysts and investors are closely watching whether this momentum could push XRP toward new highs.
Also read: Bitnomial Sues SEC Over XRP Security Classification
Why Trump’s Victory Matters for XRP and Ripple
Following Trump’s victory in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, his clear opposition to Gensler’s approach has led to renewed optimism in the crypto market. Trump’s well-known stance against current SEC regulations has drawn the attention of investors, particularly given his statement that “on day one” he would fire Gensler. This promise, along with recent SEC losses in legal battles involving cryptocurrency, suggests the potential for a shift toward lighter regulatory oversight.
Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, stated that Ripple’s appeal in the SEC lawsuit could drag on until at least mid-2025. Ripple’s legal battle, which began in 2020, involves allegations that XRP is an unregistered security. The case’s resolution has become even more crucial as it may set a precedent impacting other crypto firms operating in the U.S. A regulatory change under a pro-crypto SEC head could clear the way for Ripple’s growth by potentially reducing legal hurdles and allowing broader adoption of XRP.
Market Reaction: XRP’s Immediate Surge
Since Trump’s announcement, XRP’s price has climbed significantly, crossing the $0.667 resistance line—a crucial technical marker—on November 12, reaching $0.698, its highest price in eight months. Market experts highlight that maintaining this support level could propel XRP toward its next goal of $0.75, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. This Fibonacci line is essential in technical analysis, as crossing it typically signals momentum and positive sentiment, potentially driving further gains.
What’s Driving the Rally? The Appeal of Regulatory Shift
The potential removal of Gensler and a shift in the SEC’s approach could mean a more supportive environment for XRP and other cryptos. Gensler has overseen strict regulatory enforcement, including the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple. With Trump suggesting that a crypto-positive commissioner, such as Mark Uyeda, could take over, there’s optimism about relaxed policies that encourage innovation while ensuring investor protection. For Ripple, this change could result in smoother operations, reduced legal uncertainties, and possibly increased global partnerships.
Jake Chervinsky, a legal expert in crypto, noted that Uyeda’s potential leadership might signal a pivot towards more balanced regulations, allowing crypto companies to operate without the constant threat of lawsuits. Such a shift could also attract more institutional investors who have been hesitant due to legal risks, providing fresh liquidity and growth potential for XRP.
XRP’s Technical Landscape: Resistance Levels and Indicators
Currently, XRP’s price has reached above the 0.667 resistance line, a significant technical benchmark. If XRP continues to hold this line as support, it could reach $0.75 by the end of November 2024, representing a strong 50% increase from its recent low in October. However, there are risks; if XRP falls below this line, analysts expect selling pressure, potentially pushing the price back to the $0.60 support level, corresponding with the 0.618 Fibonacci line.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a technical indicator that measures momentum, shows that XRP is currently in an “overbought” state. When the RSI crosses above the threshold of 70, it can signal that a correction may be imminent. In XRP’s case, profit-taking by traders who rode the recent upswing could lead to short-term fluctuations, though broader momentum remains bullish.
Potential for Long-Term Growth: Eyes on $1 in Early 2025
Longer-term charts offer an optimistic outlook for XRP, especially if a regulatory shift materializes in 2025. XRP’s weekly price pattern suggests that it’s on the verge of breaking out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle—a pattern that often indicates a forthcoming price breakout. If this breakout occurs, XRP could target the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.709, with a further upside towards $1 in early 2025, a milestone it hasn’t reached since December 2021.
Onchain analytics further support the likelihood of XRP’s positive trajectory. The on-chain activity surrounding XRP has shown increased wallet transactions and rising trade volumes, often preceding price rallies. With speculation about more favorable regulations and increased adoption, investors are positioning themselves to benefit from what they expect to be a transformative period.
What XRP Investors Should Watch For
Despite the enthusiasm, several factors could impact XRP’s price trajectory:
- SEC’s Appeal Outcome: The SEC’s ongoing appeal in the Ripple case remains a key factor. A favorable outcome for Ripple could set a precedent benefiting other crypto assets, while an unfavorable decision could reverse recent gains.
- Trump’s Ability to Implement Change: While Trump’s plan to replace Gensler with a pro-crypto commissioner is significant, it remains subject to political processes and SEC governance. Delays or resistance within the agency could dampen immediate market expectations.
- Market Sentiment and Profit-Taking: Given XRP’s current “overbought” status, short-term price corrections are likely, particularly if profit-taking occurs. Traders should monitor the RSI for signs of cooling momentum.
XRP’s Path Forward Amid Regulatory Shifts
XRP’s 35% post-election rally shows how much the crypto market values regulatory clarity. The possibility of a pro-crypto SEC head under Trump’s administration has reenergized XRP investors and could lay the groundwork for further gains if market conditions align. Technically, XRP’s path to $0.75 is plausible by late November if it maintains its support level, with an optimistic outlook targeting $1 by early 2025.
As Ripple’s legal battle nears its conclusion, and with potential shifts in regulatory policy on the horizon, XRP is positioned as a top cryptocurrency to watch. Whether these factors align to drive XRP’s price remains to be seen, but the recent rally has undoubtedly reinforced its role as a prominent player in the evolving digital asset landscape.
